Oil Forecast - April 2015

April 19, 2015

Oil prices have been crushed over the past year. Looking a single metric in isolation, U.S. monetary policy has now become more favourable, indicating a better environment for future potential increases for crude prices, though some downward pressure remains in the near term. The negative correlation between oil price increases and U.S. monetary base is depicted below.
Oil / Monetary Base Correlation

From a strictly non-technical perspective, it would be difficult to argue that oil is not already poised for a significant and sustained rise. It is not as if new oil is being created, or large deposits being discovered, and production increases only serve to deplete the resource more rapidly and increase future extraction costs correspondingly.

The reliability of QuantCasting's Oil Forecast is depicted below.
QuantCasting Oil Forecast Reliability

Disclaimer: QuantCasting does attempt to project the future values of commodities, but rather uses commodity forecast assessments as they relate to individual stock projections, in addition to numerous other computations. This information is provided as a service only and does not constitute a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or commodity. As of 4/19/15, I personally have no ownership in any Oil or Gas producer, nor do I trade commodities.